The Consequences of the ‘Domestic Trigger’; A Deeper Threat to the Islamic Republic than ‘Snapback’ S. Rouzbeh ۱۴۰۴/۰۷/۱۰ The article argues that corruption, mismanagement and public hardship at home pose a greater threat to the Islamic Republic than the return of international sanctions, warning that the domestic trigger could lead to social upheaval. S. Rouzbeh – A few days have passed since the JCPOA snapback mechanism was activated at the United Nations Security Council. The suspended UN sanctions have returned, and the European Council’s official statement and reports by international media such as Reuters and the Associated Press have confirmed this development. Yet what has struck greater fear into the heart of the regime than external sanctions is the domestic trigger. The media and government officials now themselves acknowledge that the roots of the crises lie within the country: structural corruption, mismanagement and the plundering of resources. In this context, the power of society’s protests can become the principal threat to the regime’s survival. The government’s crisis of legitimacy and the domestic trigger that wins the game Official statements, including remarks by MP Hossein Samsemani, reported by Khabaronline on 6 Mehr 1404, show that the main concern is not European sanctions but the domestic trigger. He said that the flawed policy-making model and domestic self-sanctions had played a greater role in creating the crises, and that the country’s foreign-currency resources had been spent on speculation and undermining production. The consequences of this admission The end of propaganda: It is no longer possible to attribute all economic problems to foreign sanctions. People see domestic corruption and plunder as the main cause. Sanctions as a catalyst: The return of UN sanctions, amid domestic corruption, puts direct pressure on people’s livelihoods, not on rent-seeking networks. Political deadlock and the inevitability of a social explosion The regime’s media have also come to acknowledge this. The newspaper Ham-Mihan wrote on 6 Mehr 1404 that the roots of Iran’s problems lie within the country, not in the Security Council, and even described rival factions’ expressions of delight as alignment with Israel. The regime’s position Real reform means ending self-sanctions and rent-seeking, and removing the interests of wealthy factions—steps that would lead to the collapse of the current structure. Maintaining the status quo will intensify the livelihood crisis and make a social explosion inevitable. An analytical view from someone close to the regime In his recent reactions, Ahmad Zeidabadi has warned that the connection between historical crises and immediate crises could push society away from gradual reform and towards severe confrontation. This summary of his view shows why the Supreme Leader fears a domestic uprising more than a foreign war. Three psychological and sociological consequences 1 – The erosion of control and hope Daily price changes and chronic uncertainty make citizens feel that control over their lives has slipped away. Depression, anxiety and lack of motivation spread. 2 – Institutional distrust Corruption and the greed of the wealthy erode social capital and normalise lawlessness. An example can be seen in social reports on the turmoil in society published by Ham-Mihan. 3—The radicalisation of demands Inflation is destroying the middle class, and society is being divided into two poles: a poor majority and a profiteering minority. This divide already existed, of course, but it has now widened and will widen further. Trade-union, professional and pensioners’ protests, and others, can quickly acquire the potential to become a nationwide movement. This is precisely the danger highlighted in the analyses, one that threatens the survival of the Islamic Republic. Conclusion Now that only a few days have passed since the official implementation of snapback at the United Nations, it is clear that external sanctions are merely a catalyst. The domestic trigger—structural corruption, mismanagement and accumulated discontent after decades of poor governance—is the greatest threat to the system. The cost to the government, as a result of inflationary expectations, the collapse of social capital and society’s readiness to protest, will be far greater than the direct pressure of sanctions. The system is no longer facing only a foreign enemy; it is confronting the accumulated consequences of its own inefficient and corrupt governance, and has no choice but repression and violence, executions, threats, and the creation of fear and terror, in order to preserve its existence, which is more at risk than ever. Source: https://srouzbeh.com/en/posts/archive-3740719a-0f62-8219-ee1b-1bb4f5c44ebc Please credit the author and link to this edition.