A Century of Decline in Statistical Honesty: From the 1301 Municipality to Today’s Selective Statistical System H. Soleimani ۱۴۰۴/۰۶/۰۱ A comparison between the candid social statistics published by Tehran’s municipality in 1301 and today’s selective statistical system argues that Iran has lost the transparency needed to see and understand social reality. H. Soleimani – This article is based on the book “An Analysis of the Collapse of Transparency, Based on the Statistics of Tehran Municipality and the Account of Ja‘far Shahri”. While researching social issues, I was consulting historical statistical sources when I came across figures from 1301 in the Solar Hijri calendar. They had been recorded with remarkable precision in Ja‘far Shahri’s enduring work, “The Social History of Tehran in the Thirteenth Century”. To my great surprise, I found that in a society apparently traditional and steeped in superstition, the municipality of the time (Tehran’s Baladiyeh) had published social statistics with exemplary candour. The report listed not only the numbers of religious scholars, prayer leaders and eulogists, but also crimes, prostitution, theft, the peddling of superstition, gambling and even shroud theft, each with a figure. This encounter with the forgotten statistics of the past brought a fundamental question to mind: How can it be that today, with all our technology, organisations, ministries and statistical centres, we are so incapable of understanding the reality of society? The answer was more bitter than I had imagined: we are not incapable; we have deliberately become secretive. The system no longer sees the truth—or does not wish to see it—but only wants to “show” something; and what is shown is a shadow of reality, filtered through politics. I also felt it necessary that, in the near future, Iran’s statistical system should be transformed and the extent of the destruction inflicted on Iranian society made clear. For this picture, I chose Iran in 1301. Tehran in 1301: Statistics That Held Up a Mirror In 1301 in the Solar Hijri calendar, Tehran’s population was about 196,255. The municipality of the time presented a list of the capital’s occupational, religious, economic and social conditions which today, above all, stands as evidence of an unvarnished acceptance of social reality. Lawful and legal occupations: Religion was at the heart of society; more than 1,200 people worked in religious occupations such as eulogist, Qur’an reciter, prayer leader, preacher, religious student, teacher and attendant. Superstitious practices—including prayer writers, fortune-tellers, conjurers, snake charmers and shadow-puppet performers—were also included in the official list. The urban informal economy—from beet sellers, doogh sellers, tray carriers and itinerant vendors to travelling musicians—accounted for a substantial share of people’s everyday lives. Even sexual and marginal occupations such as “love broker”, “pimp”, “famous woman” and “marriage broker” were recorded by name and number, without being denied or concealed behind deceptive phrases. Illegal but recorded occupations: House burglars, pickpockets, gamblers, receivers of stolen goods, bundle carriers, women who sold sex, women who solicited men, shroud thieves and pimps—all were recorded as accepted social realities. An important point: recording these occupations did not mean approving of them or granting them legitimacy; it was an effort to understand Tehran as it really was and to formulate effective urban policy. The municipality did not shut its eyes to the city’s uglier aspects. Today’s Tehran: A City Hidden Beneath Layers of Statistical Lies But today’s Tehran, with a population of more than 13 million and unprecedented access to technology, budgets and human resources, is deprived of the most basic principle of development: transparency. Iran’s statistical system today is no longer a mirror; it is a tool for erasing reality and creating an image the government wants. Statistics are manipulated, selectively presented or not published at all. Data emerge only when they serve the system’s interests. The costs and consequences of the death of statistical transparency 1. Policy-making based on error When poverty, unemployment and domestic violence are downplayed or concealed in statistics, policymakers, acting on the same errors, prescribe hollow and ineffective remedies for the people. Plans fail one after another because they are built on false data. 2. The destruction of social capital When people know that official statistics are lies, public trust collapses. Inflation, unemployment and the cost of a basic household basket are, for the public, nothing but a bitter joke occasionally announced by the official media. 3. The intensification of poverty, crime and social breakdown What is absent from the statistics is ignored in practice. In the absence of honest data, absolute poverty, homelessness, addiction, prostitution, suicide and divorce are left untreated and take root. 4. The government’s evasion of responsibility When data are manipulated, accountability vanishes too. If an economic crisis occurs, its cause is declared to be “sanctions”, “the enemy” or a “misunderstanding”. But no one ever says that the data were fabricated and decisions were made on the basis of lies. Conclusion: What you cannot see, you cannot treat The statistics of Tehran’s municipality in 1301 are a testament to honesty in understanding society; today, Tehran, despite all its technological tools and complex structures, conceals lies behind layers of charts, displays and institutions. In a world where the future is built on data, a society afraid to see its own pain is condemned to repeat its crises. The absence of transparent statistics not only prevents reform, but traps society in a ceaseless cycle of denial, evasion and disaster-making. Perhaps today, more than new laws, development projects or economic promises, we need statistics that are real, honest and uncensored. Because reform begins with acceptance; and acceptance begins with seeing the truth. The municipality of 1301 looked reality in the eye. Today, the government fixes its gaze on colourful PowerPoint presentations and charts designed to justify. But a society that closes its eyes will inevitably run headlong into a wall. Source: https://srouzbeh.com/en/posts/archive-3dee2268-89a5-e63b-7e2a-def68956fbfe Please credit the author and link to this edition.