The Cardboard Leader, Hidden Command and Tremors in the Repressive Apparatus
S. Rouzbeh
۱۴۰۴/۱۲/۲۵

S. Rouzbeh argues that hidden leadership, underground command posts, damaged communications and the survival instincts of security forces point to structural entropy and growing social and economic strain.

S. Rouzbeh – Sometimes, to understand the collapse of a large structure, there is no need to turn to the most complex political theories. It is enough to imagine a simple change in everyday life. Even moving house, if it happens suddenly and under pressure, throws everything into disarray for a while. Now apply the same logic to a military and security structure simultaneously facing bombardment, the elimination of commanders and a leadership crisis, and we are no longer dealing with a temporary disruption; we are facing a kind of “structural entropy”: a condition in which the system spends more of its energy on physical survival and preventing its internal disintegration than on confronting the enemy.

1. The Cardboard Leader and the Symbolic Vacuum

In political science, a leader is not merely someone who issues orders, but the psychological centre of gravity of a system. When, at the height of a crisis, only a lifeless text, without image or voice, is issued from the seat of power, the term “cardboard leader” takes on meaning. This does not necessarily mean physical absence, but rather functional absence. In the days when a message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei was published in written form, no new image or clear indication of his physical condition or public presence was provided at the same time, and this only intensified the questions: is he still alive, or are we dealing with some kind of deception operation? Today, everything about this remains shrouded in uncertainty.

This is where today differs from 1988. By drinking the “poisoned chalice”, Ruhollah Khomeini accepted responsibility for defeat and preserved the system’s central authority. But today, silence and secrecy have raised a question within the system’s ranks: is there anyone who will accept responsibility for the hard decisions at the final moment?

In such circumstances, the absence of an image is not merely a media issue; it is a sign of an absence of accountability. And when the executive and military ranks develop this feeling, they see themselves abandoned in the middle of the battlefield. This course of events may prompt doubts among the ranks and commanders, and increase their fear that they will ultimately be handed over to courts of justice—and what will happen to their families. This is a situation that intensifies the crisis and spreads fear.

2. Underground Bunkers and Absent Commanders

Reports and indications suggest that part of the command and crisis-management apparatus has moved from the surface to safer, more concealed spaces. When commanders and senior officials are forced to take refuge in basements, secure rooms or protective tunnels, the first casualty is the chain of command. The Reuters news agency has also written of a split at the top of the power structure and the growing role of the IRGC in wartime decision-making following recent strikes.

Disruption to logistics is the first consequence of this situation. Managing a war, or even administering a city, from enclosed and concealed spaces entails severe communication constraints and slower transmission of decisions. At the same time, the gap between “headquarters” and “the frontline” deepens. A commander removed from the streets and barracks and stationed deep inside a bunker can no longer sense the pulse of the moment as before. In such circumstances, pressure from above turns into fear and distrust further down the chain.

3. The Repressive Apparatus: From Street Authority to the Instinct for Survival

Perhaps the most serious sign of erosion is the situation facing the police, the Basij and the special units. For years, these forces ruled the streets under the heavy shadow of power. But when the command goes into hiding and field forces remain directly exposed to danger, street authority gradually gives way to the instinct for survival.

Based on some videos published in the media, including reports and footage broadcast by Iran International, there are indications of forces being deployed or taking shelter in places such as tunnels, underpasses and safer urban spaces. Even if this situation is not yet the same everywhere, its logic is clear: the force that yesterday was an instrument of street repression is today trying to protect itself from the sky and the ground. This psychological shift is no small matter. When the police or operational forces feel that they are more exposed to being sacrificed than supported, their first response will not be to attack, but to hide, delay or fail to act.

4. The Erosion of the Communications Network and “Strategic Orphanhood”

Every military capability, including missiles and drones, has a ceiling for replacement. But more dangerous than running out of ammunition is running out of operational will. When a barracks, warehouse, communications centre or command post comes under pressure, it is not only the building that is destroyed; working methods and mutual trust are also damaged. Western analytical reports, too, have referred to recent strikes on Iran’s military and internal security infrastructure.

A force that does not know who will be killed or replaced tomorrow is afflicted by a kind of “strategic orphanhood”. These forces may still be wearing uniforms, but psychologically they are no longer part of a coherent war machine. They become scattered individuals whose chief concern is to stay alive until the end of their shift. A system whose ranks reach this point may still be noisy on the outside, but it is no longer united within.

5. The Social and Economic Dimension: The Final Blow

The system has entered this phase of erosion at a time when its social support had already been weakened. Economic hardship, public distrust, past repression and the psychological exhaustion of society were all present even before this war. Now the costs of secrecy, military redeployments, disruption to the running of cities and heightened security pressure have placed a fresh burden on society.

Alongside this, the failure of narratives is also apparent. When the boasts on IRIB are compared with images of hidden command, an absent leader and written messages, they sometimes have the opposite effect. People look not only at the text, but also at the void behind it. When a threat is not accompanied by a display of authority, it does not frighten; it exposes anxiety.

The Outcome at the Heart of Reality

Collapse is not necessarily a great explosion on a particular day. It may be the situation whose signs are visible today: the leadership pillar cracking through absence and written messages, the command pillar gradually crumbling as it takes refuge underground, and the pillar of fear melting away where the repressive apparatus thinks more about saving its own skin than carrying out its mission.

On the surface, the structure may still appear to be standing. But when the leadership pillar cracks, command retreats underground, and the repressive apparatus thinks more about saving its own skin than carrying out its mission, the issue is no longer simply the survival of a government; it is the erosion of an order built for years on fear, propaganda and obedience. Whether these tremors are the prelude to a temporary reconstruction or a sign of entry into the final stage is a judgement that will be clarified not by official bluster, but by the course of events, the people’s perspective and the people’s final movement under the leadership of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the leader of the transition.

Source: https://srouzbeh.com/en/posts/archive-6f59f4ae-70a6-2b53-4ad8-8255868ebf5f
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