Selected Article · 18 February 2026
The Trojan Horse: A Gift to End the Illusion
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An analysis of soft encirclement, the pressure on Iran’s middle class, and the prospect of collapse from within.
The Trojan Horse: A Gift to End the Illusion
An analysis of soft encirclement and collapse from within
1. Beyond viral maps: software warfare
Maps crowded with warships and fighter jets, passed around on social media, are more a form of “psychological imagery” than operational reality. Modern warfare does not begin with a shot; it begins with the belief that “the ways to breathe have been closed off.” Today’s encirclement is not the physical closure of borders, but the severing of the invisible arteries of insurance, banking and international credit.
2. The middle class: gatekeepers of a besieged city
If we imagine the government as the city walls, the middle class are the gatekeepers of those walls. This class lends the system legitimacy through “hope for the future” and “stability of livelihood”.
* Soft strangulation: When the sanctions rope is made of “insurance paperwork” and “banking messages”, the pressure falls directly on the shoulders of the middle class.
* The breaking point: When savings become a means of survival and prosperity turns to regret, this class no longer has any incentive to keep the gates. At this moment, the Trojan Horse enters.
3. The Trojan Horse: a gift of “temporary breathing space”
In the 21st century, the Trojan Horse is not a wooden structure; it is a collection of small promises: limited exemptions, conditional financial channels (such as FATF), or temporary agreements.
* The price of breathing space: To obtain this oxygen, the system is forced to open its “information gates”.
* The end of the illusion: This gift is not peace; it is the end of the illusion that one can remain globally isolated while keeping people’s tables laden.
4. Military exercises: hardware’s response to a software crisis
Through military exercises, the IRGC tries to raise the “cost of pressure” for its adversary. But here is the paradox:
* The message to the outside world: “If we are suffocated, we will put energy security at risk.”
* The reality at home: Military exercises can make “the news”, but they cannot produce “foreign currency” or reduce insurance risk. Exercises are a painkiller for the loyal ranks, but they are no cure for the hardships of the middle class beneath the weight of inflation.
5. Shaking pillars: trust and loyalty
Soft encirclement succeeds when three internal pillars collapse:
1. The reserve of trust: when society interprets every government decision as “incompetence”.
2. The cohesion of the elite: when resources dwindle, a power struggle begins over the remaining spoils.
3. Transactional loyalty: when the administrative workforce sees that its wages are not keeping pace with inflation, its loyalty shifts from “ideological” to “hourly paid”.
Conclusion: The beginning of reality
The Trojan Horse is economic, and its aim is not to demolish the walls, but to compel the city’s inhabitants to open the gates. The difference between “rationality for survival” and “collapse brought on by exhaustion” lies only in the timing of opening those gates. The end of illusion is the beginning of confronting a truth hidden not in military exercises, but in the real-time exchange rate and the empty tables of the middle class. After this, America will enter the phase of physical warfare.
S. Rouzbeh
