Another Whiff of a Deal — But It's a Donkey They're Branding!

S. Rouzbeh — Gooya News — 2 November 2026

Indirect negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States, mediated by Qatar, have once again raised hopes of economic relief. Yet the amount of food Iranian families can put on their tables shrinks by the day. On one side, there is talk of releasing frozen funds and easing restrictions. On the other, there is anxiety over the price of bread, medicine and rent. It brings to mind an old Persian saying: ‘We came because we could smell kebab, only to discover they were branding a donkey!’

In two previous articles for Gooya News — ‘An Agreement with the Islamic Republic: Stability or Artificial Life Support for a Worn-Out Regime?’ [1], published on 8 Ordibehesht 1405, and ‘Agreement or Trap? When a Signature Does Not Bring Peace’ [2], published on 28 Khordad of the same year — I warned about the consequences of an agreement that disregards the Iranian people and allows financial resources to change hands without transparency. Those articles concerned the place of the people in such agreements and the responsibilities of the parties involved. This time, I want to look closer to home: at a family budget that keeps shrinking and at families who cannot pay today's bills with promises about tomorrow.

Even the official figures are staggering. According to the Statistical Centre of Iran [3], point-to-point inflation in Mehr 1405 reached 88.7 per cent, while annual inflation stood at 76.8 per cent. Point-to-point inflation in rural areas reached 107 per cent. These figures mean that a household needs considerably more money than it did a year earlier to buy the same basket of goods and services. A slight slowdown in the rate of price increases does not mean that goods have become cheaper.

Meanwhile, the basic monthly minimum wage for workers is around 16.6 million tomans. Based on figures for Shahrivar, the wages committee of the Supreme Centre of Islamic Labour Councils [4] calculated the cost of a working household's essential living basket at nearly 78 million tomans. A labour activist [5] put the figure at close to 100 million tomans by the end of Mehr. These are not identical calculations and should not be treated as interchangeable. Both, however, point to an enormous gap between earnings and the cost of living. Even a pay rise on paper does not necessarily improve purchasing power when food prices and rents rise faster.

Behind these figures are lives that do not appear in economic tables. Cutting food from the shopping basket, postponing medical treatment, spending savings and borrowing to meet everyday needs have all become part of family life. In a report published on 28 October [6], Reuters, drawing on interviews with more than twenty people in Iran, described cuts to spending on food, housing, healthcare and education. Economic hardship is not simply hunger; it is the loss of choice in the most basic aspects of life. When a family must decide which essential need to forgo, the issue is no longer merely a decline in living standards. It is the growing difficulty of maintaining an ordinary life.

That does not mean every economic agreement would be ineffective. Easing trade restrictions and improving access to financial resources could benefit Iran's economy. But there is a long road between an increase in government revenue and an improvement in people's daily lives. Where will the money be spent? Who will oversee its use? How much will go towards public services, and when will families see any improvement in their purchasing power? Without accountability, budget transparency and measures to curb inflation, news of the release of assets will not, on its own, make bread cheaper.

Nor can this question be separated from the political conditions in which people live. On 3 Ordibehesht 1405, Prince Reza Pahlavi rightly drew attention to this gap when he said [7]: ‘The people of Iran have no representative in the ongoing negotiations.’ The issue is not merely the absence of a seat at the negotiating table. How can a society without the freedom to ask questions, form independent organisations or scrutinise economic decisions hold officials to account for the use of newly available revenues?

At the same time, an atmosphere of repression makes it increasingly costly to protest against these very conditions. A report presented to the United Nations Human Rights Council [8] in Shahrivar 1405 described widespread arrests, torture and an escalation of executions linked to protests. According to that report, at least 29 men were executed in connection with protests between March and the end of August 2026, while more than 70 others faced the risk of a death sentence or execution. This grim reality cannot be separated from the question of putting food on the table. The right to protest against rising prices and to demand answers is part of the very life that is supposed to improve. Freedom and livelihoods are not unrelated demands.

There can be daily reports of a possible preliminary agreement, an interim understanding or an imminent breakthrough. But the prices of bread and medicine, utility bills and rents do not follow the timetable of negotiations. A family unable to meet its expenses today cannot suspend its life until the next document is signed. People who have borne the cost of repeated crises for years are entitled to see economic gains in their own lives, not merely in newspaper headlines.

If economic relief does arrive, what guarantee is there that the Iranian people's share will be less pressure on their household budgets rather than simply more resources at the government's disposal?

And as long as people are denied freedom, the right to protest and oversight of their own future, how can they know whether this time they are smelling kebab — or the smoke from a donkey being branded?

Source links cited in the article:

[1] ‘An Agreement with the Islamic Republic: Stability or Artificial Life Support for a Worn-Out Regime?’: https://news.gooya.com/2026/04/post-108965.php

[2] ‘Agreement or Trap? When a Signature Does Not Bring Peace’: https://news.gooya.com/2026/06/post-110582.php

[3] Statistical Centre of Iran: https://www.tasnimnews.ir/fa/news/1405/08/06/3733225/

[4] wages committee of the Supreme Centre of Islamic Labour Councils: https://sehatkhabar.ir/515058/

[5] labour activist: https://iranwire.com/fa/news-1/159353-%D9%87%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DB%B1%DB%B0%DB%B0-%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF/

[6] report published on 28 October: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranians-cut-essentials-put-dreams-hold-as-war-hit-economy-bites-2026-10-28/

[7] said: https://www.iranintl.com/202604232835

[8] report presented to the United Nations Human Rights Council: https://transcripts.un.org/en/hrc/63/20